Optimising the first over

October 29, 2017 by Guest User in Team strategy

Six games into the 2017 T20 Blast, Kent were the slowest starters in the competition. Even enduring a maiden first over at home to Gloucestershire. In their seventh game, against Somerset, the team switched things up. Joe Denly moved into the opening slot, with his partner, Bell-Drummond replacing him at the other end

Superficially, the switch appeared to work. In the following eight games, Kent were scoring more runs after 3 balls (+0.6), more runs in the first over (+0.5), and more runs in the PowerPlay (+2.6)

T20 Player Value: Part I

September 29, 2017 by Guest User in Methodology

In this and subsequent posts, I aim to explain my methods for T20 player evaluation. They are not set in stone. Any time I sit down to analyse a player, team, tournament, strategy, there is a decent chance that they will change. I would love to hear other people’s feedback and ideas. If nothing else, writing down my thoughts has forced me to be critical of my own work. Indeed, the methods changed several times even as I documented them

Win Probability Methodology Write-up

June 24, 2017 by Guest User in Methodology

The concepts of win probability in sports fascinates me. I use it frequently when trying to understand the value of players or the impact of events within a cricket match. Here I try to remove the black-box nature of my win probability models