The Indian Coin Flip Contest

May 27, 2019 by Guest User in Indian Premier League

MS Dhoni recently forfeited the opportunity to become the most successful captain in the Indian Premier League. Instead, with one throwback, toe-seeking yorker, Lasith Malinga handed the trophy to his own captain, Rohit Sharma of the Mumbai Indians. Four titles in seven years, all at Dhoni’s expense; it is an impressive record… yet Dhoni’s record is arguably superior when we consider the broader extent of his achievements through 12 IPL seasons: Chennai Super Kings have never failed to make the playoffs under his leadership. He has competed in 9 finals. He has taken 44 different players with him to those finals.

Toss decisions: it's complicated

February 18, 2018 by Guest User in Match Prediction

Recently, I wrote about how the toss-decisions made by captains before games were probably sub-optimal. I stand by everything said within that article (which concluded with me claiming that I would have a better record than the average T20 captain were I the one making decisions) but there were complications that I chose not include. This post exists to demonstrate that interpreting even the simplest data is often far from straightforward - and the capacity to confuse cause and effect is always present

Toss decisions: worse than random

February 09, 2018 by Guest User in Match Prediction

Being at home in the IPL gives the team a 1% advantage. Batting second gives the team a 5% advantage. And winning the toss gives the team a 2% advantage. That may all seem to conform to common sense but a closer examination of those figures reveals an inconsistency: how can winning the toss possibly be less advantageous than batting second?